Overall actual softwood timber market reflection (inspired by PMI outcome November)

𝗣𝗠𝗜:
In November 2024, the global industrial sector showed signs of recovery, with the global Manufacturing PMI rising to 50, indicating stabilization after previous contraction. A projected increase in U.S. import tariffs next year may have played a role in the improvement seen in November.
This recovery was primarily driven by emerging markets, with a PMI of 51.6, while developed markets continued to contract with a PMI of 48.4. China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose significantly to 51.5, contributing to overall growth. In contrast, the eurozone lagged behind, with its PMI dropping to 45.2, signaling ongoing contraction. The Dutch industry faced further deterioration, with its PMI falling to 46.6, marking its weakest performance of the year.
These figures suggest that despite global improvements, the Dutch and broader European industrial sectors continue to face challenging conditions.
Looking ahead, there are unfortunately few optimistic indicators from an economic or industrial perspective to predict solid progress.
…The fact remains that economic forecasters have missed the mark more often than ever in 2024 😊

𝗧𝗶𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿:
According to the PMI data, inventory reductions on the buying side are still decreasing. The declining demand in our sector does not always lead to significant inventory depletion. However, it is clear that forward ordering is minimal. Buyers prefer to wait rather than commit. European industrial challenges are undoubtedly the cause, leaving little hope for short-term improvement.
Meanwhile, supply chain issues in the timber industry are mounting: labor shortages, energy costs, log prices and availability, and market conditions are all creating increasing pressure on costs. Despite subdued demand, inventory levels on the supply chain’s back end remain tight.
What will timber exports to the U.S. and Asia look like in 2025? It’s all speculation.
A price drop seems unthinkable. Any imbalance will quickly become apparent should one arise.

Let us use the holiday season to embrace everything positive around us and carry it forward into the new year. With just a bit more positivity, we can always create something better—even if it’s just more fun! That is my heartfelt wish for everyone in 2025; 𝓱𝓪𝓿𝓮 (𝓶𝓸𝓻𝓮) 𝓯𝓾𝓷 😁!

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