𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗹 𝘀𝗼𝗳𝘁𝘄𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝗳𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 (𝗶𝗻𝘀𝗽𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆 𝗣𝗠𝗜 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗔𝘂𝗴𝘂𝘀𝘁)

𝗣𝗠𝗜:
After a summer break, during which it seemed as if the market had also sent its activities on vacation, we see that the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI remained at 45.8 (for the third consecutive month), indicating a further deterioration in business conditions, with the recession now lasting for 26 months.
The only bright spot is that the deflationary phase in the goods sector seems to have ended. For the first time since April last year, sales prices have risen again.
Despite this, the ECB today lowered interest rates by 0.25% for the second time this year. The question is, what will follow?
The manufacturing sector, led by Germany and France, remains in decline. A decreasing interest rate policy would be highly desirable in this context.
Globally, the manufacturing sector fell to 49.9 in August. This is the first reading below the 50 mark this year.
A continued slowdown in new orders and hiring pace were the main reasons, with higher transport costs as a contributing factor. The Eurozone remains the weakest-performing region.

𝗧𝗶𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁:
The timber market is slowly waking up and, despite low summer demand, does not have large stocks. Both sawmills and the processing wood industry have low stocks.
The question is when will this line of supply and demand cross? Looking at your surroundings and the sentiment shown in the market, you would say that this would certainly not be the case in the last quarter. But that is precisely where I am not so sure.
Cost pressure is very high and the available beetle damaged German roundwood is declining significantly, which means that the German market, too, is feeling more and more compelled to continue this price pressure in the market. Only a small difference needs to arise in a single head size and these volume opposites intersect.
That this sentiment will do something to the prices on the supply side is then obviously a fact.
Whether this will change the timber market price curve or the slowly rebounding (global economy) or a combination of both, the fact remains that sawmills are weighed down by solid cost pressures that will explode with every imbalance.
One thing is clear; price declines are off the table.