𝐎𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐬𝐨𝐟𝐭𝐰𝐨𝐨𝐝 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 (𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐩𝐢𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐲 𝐏𝐌𝐈 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐉𝐮𝐧𝐞)

𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐮𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐏𝐌𝐈:
The Eurozone PMI dropped to 52.1, still indicating growth but marking the lowest level since August 2020. Mainly due to a reduction in production, the first decline in 2 years. The demand for goods has significantly decreased, with new orders falling in almost all Eurozone countries. Notably, Germany, France, and Italy are lagging, while only the Netherlands, Spain, and Greece are experiencing growth.
Regarding the GDP in the Eurozone, it is expected that the weakness in manufacturing will negatively impact economic growth. The demand for goods and inventories are decreasing, predicting a period of economic stress. Companies are becoming more cautious with spending, which may lead to a reduction in employment and investments
But there are some signs of stabilization in order intake, which might slow down the production decline. Additionally, manufacturers expressed strong optimism about their production prospects for the next 12 months (highest since Feb 2022)!
This optimistic outlook may mitigate the negative GDP developments

Globally, PMI figures showed variation. In the US, the PMI rose to 51.7, a 3-month high, while the UK saw a decline to 50.9, the lowest level in 2 months. Vietnam experienced a remarkable increase to 54.7 (highest in 25 months). In Asia, Japan’s PMI remained stable, while China saw slight growth. Latin America showed mixed developments, with countries like Brazil showing slight recovery, but Mexico under pressure

𝐓𝐢𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫:
“The supply at sawmills is good” is a common belief in the wood market. But that is incorrect. The demand is far from good. On a scale of 0 to 10, demand has been performing below 5 for 2 years. If ‘normal’ is 5, demand is creeping towards 3, the supply is now just a tiny point above that
log deliveries are generally not up to standard (a.o. general ‘state of the forest’). Any short-term improvement is not expected. A labor shortage will undoubtedly take its toll with future increasing demand in output and logistics

Currently end-user inventories seem more than adequate, and only missing dimensions are being purchased.
Sawmills will be closing/undergoing maintenance the coming weeks. Buyers will go on holiday without making new purchases. No major change in demand is expected in the coming months.
One fact, as far as I’m concerned, stands out: we have already seen the lowest prices of 2024!

The big question is: when will the ‘availability shoe’ pinch?
Exciting times!

I wish you all a fine, relaxing, and inspiring holiday!

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